Africa stands on the brink of a significant demographic shift. By 2050, projections indicate that one in four workers globally will be African. This transformation could generate a substantial demographic dividend. However, a major barrier remains.
UNICEF’s Fit for the Future report (2024), co-written by the Learning for Well-being Institute, highlights that social spending on children is heavily backloaded. Only 6.5% of spending targets children under five, compared with 27% in G20 countries.
Therefore, African countries must urgently address policy gaps in early childhood education, childcare, and income support to unlock this demographic potential.
This study analyses key trends, financing mechanisms, and policies shaping human capital investment in Africa. In particular, it focuses on the persistent underinvestment in early childhood. The analysis examines demographic trends, returns from early childhood investment, existing policy frameworks, and spending patterns.
Moreover, the study identifies strategic opportunities to improve public finance efficiency and strengthen long-term development outcomes across the continent.
The research informed UNICEF’s African Flagship Report 2025. Its purpose is to raise awareness among governments, development partners, and the private sector about a major gap in the continent’s human capital strategy. Specifically, the gap stems from insufficient policies and financing for young children.
Consequently, the report aims to generate momentum for meaningful policy reform and financing commitments.
The study was commissioned by the UNICEF Eastern and Southern Africa Regional Office and written in collaboration with Sophie Mackinder (University of York), John Hudson (University of York), and David Harris (Columbia University).
